Geographic profiling in Nazi Berlin: fact and fiction

Geographic profiling uses the locations of connected crime sites to make inferences about the probable location of the offender’s ‘anchor point’ (usually a home, but sometimes a workplace). We show how the basic ideas of the method were used in a Gestapo investigation that formed the basis of a classic German novel about domestic resistance to the Nazis during the Second World War. We use modern techniques to re-analyse this case, and show that these successfully locate the Berlin home address of Otto and Elise Hampel, who had distributed hundreds of anti-Nazi postcards, after analysing just 34 of the 214 incidents that took place before their arrest. Our study provides the first empirical evidence to support the suggestion that analysis of minor terrorism-related acts such as graffiti and theft could be used to help locate terrorist bases before more serious incidents occur

Cost-effectiveness of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor prophylaxis for febrile neutropenia in patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the United Kingdom (UK)

Introduction: We report a cost-effectiveness evaluation of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) for prevention of febrile neutropenia (FN) following chemotherapy for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) in the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A mathematical model was constructed simulating the experience of patients with NHL undergoing chemotherapy. Three strategies were modelled: primary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles); secondary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles following an FN event), and no G-CSF prophylaxis. Three G-CSFs were considered: filgrastim; lenograstim and pegfilgrastim. Costs were taken from UK databases and utility values from published sources with the base case analysis using list prices for G-CSFs and a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. A systematic review provided data on G-CSF efficacy. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined the effects of uncertainty in model parameters. Results: In the base-case analysis the most cost-effective strategy was primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for a patient with baseline FN risk greater than 22%, secondary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for baseline FN risk 8-22%, and no G-CSFs for baseline FN risk less than 8%. Using a WTP threshold of £30,000, primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim was cost-effective for baseline FN risks greater than 16%. In all analyses, pegfilgrastim dominated filgrastim and lenograstim. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that higher WTP threshold, younger age, or reduced G-CSF prices result in G-CSF prophylaxis being cost-effective at lower baseline FN risk levels. Conclusions: Pegfilgrastim was the most cost-effective G-CSF. The most cost-effective strategy (primary or secondary prophylaxis) was dependent on underlying FN risk level, patient age, and G-CSF price

Spatial targeting of infectious disease control: identifying multiple, unknown sources

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Cost-effectiveness of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor prophylaxis for febrile neutropenia in breast cancer in the United Kingdom

Introduction: We report a cost-effectiveness evaluation of granulocyte colony–stimulating factors (G-CSFs) for the prevention of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy in the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A mathematical model was constructed simulating the experience of women with breast cancer undergoing chemotherapy. Three strategies were modelled: primary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles), secondary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles after an FN event), and no G-CSF prophylaxis. Three G-CSFs were considered: filgrastim, lenograstim, and pegfilgrastim. Costs were taken from UK databases and utility values from published sources. A systematic review provided data on G-CSF efficacy. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined the effects of uncertainty in model parameters. Results: In the UK, base-case analysis with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained and using list prices, the most cost-effective strategy was primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for a patient with baseline FN risk greater than 38%, secondary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for baseline FN risk 11% to 37%, and no G-CSFs for baseline FN risk less than 11%. Using a WTP threshold of £30,000 and list prices, primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim was cost-effective for baseline FN risks greater than 29%. In all analyses, pegfilgrastim dominated filgrastim and lenograstim. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that higher WTP threshold, younger age, earlier stage at diagnosis, or reduced G-CSF prices result in G-CSF prophylaxis being cost-effective at lower baseline FN risk levels. Conclusion: Pegfilgrastim was the most cost-effective G-CSF. The most cost-effective strategy (primary or secondary prophylaxis) was dependent on the FN risk level for an individual patient, patient age and stage at diagnosis, and G-CSF price

Do atypical antipsychotics trigger manic switching in patients with bipolar I disorder?

A 22-year-old newly diagnosed patient with bipolar is discussing with her doctor the safety of starting an atypical antipsychotic as part of her treatment plan for depression. The patient was recently diagnosed with bipolar disorder after years of ups and downs making school and her relationship especially difficult. After seeking out a university student health psychiatrist for a severe depressive episode she was prescribed an antidepressant, which within a few weeks triggered a manic episode that required hospitalization. Since that time she has been compliant with her medications but has fallen into another depressive episode. Her psychiatrist encourages her to begin taking the atypical antipsychotic quetiapine because it may help with her current mood. Given her experience with antidepressants she is apprehensive. She asks, is it possible that a medication like quetiapine could trigger another manic episode

P-Multigrid expansion of hybrid multilevel solvers for discontinuous Galerkin finite element discrete ordinate (DG-FEM-SN) diffusion synthetic acceleration (DSA) of radiation transport algorithms

Effective preconditioning of neutron diffusion problems is necessary for the development of efficient DSA schemes for neutron transport problems. This paper uses P-multigrid techniques to expand two preconditioners designed to solve the MIP diffusion neutron diffusion equation with a discontinuous Galerkin (DG-FEM) framework using first-order elements. These preconditioners are based on projecting the first-order DG-FEM formulation to either a linear continuous or a constant discontinuous FEM system. The P-multigrid expansion allows the preconditioners to be applied to problems discretised with second and higher-order elements. The preconditioning algorithms are defined in the form of both a V-cycle and W-cycle and applied to solve challenging neutron diffusion problems. In addition a hybrid preconditioner using P-multigrid and AMG without a constant or continuous coarsening is used. Their performance is measured against a computationally efficient standard algebraic multigrid preconditioner. The results obtained demonstrate that all preconditioners studied in this paper provide good convergence with the continuous method generally being the most computationally efficient. In terms of memory requirements the preconditioners studied significantly outperform the AMG

A Systematic Review of Methods to Incorporate External Evidence into Trial-Based Survival Extrapolations for Health Technology Assessment

Background: External evidence is commonly used to inform survival modeling for health technology assessment (HTA). While there are a range of methodological approaches that have been proposed, it is unclear which methods could be used and how they compare. Purpose: This review aims to identify, describe, and categorize established methods to incorporate external evidence into survival extrapolation for HTA. Data Sources: Embase, MEDLINE, EconLit, and Web of Science databases were searched to identify published methodological studies, supplemented by hand searching and citation tracking. Study Selection: Eligible studies were required to present a novel extrapolation approach incorporating external evidence (i.e., data or information) within survival model estimation. Data Extraction: Studies were classified according to how the external evidence was integrated as a part of model fitting. Information was extracted concerning the model-fitting process, key requirements, assumptions, software, application contexts, and presentation of comparisons with, or validation against, other methods. Data Synthesis: Across 18 methods identified from 22 studies, themes included use of informative prior(s) (n = 5), piecewise (n = 7), and general population adjustment (n = 9), plus a variety of “other” (n = 8) approaches. Most methods were applied in cancer populations (n = 13). No studies compared or validated their method against another method that also incorporated external evidence. Limitations: As only studies with a specific methodological objective were included, methods proposed as part of another study type (e.g., an economic evaluation) were excluded from this review. Conclusions: Several methods were identified in this review, with common themes based on typical data sources and analytical approaches. Of note, no evidence was found comparing the identified methods to one another, and so an assessment of different methods would be a useful area for further research. This review aims to identify methods that have been used to incorporate external evidence into survival extrapolations, focusing on those that may be used to inform health technology assessment. We found a range of different approaches, including piecewise methods, Bayesian methods using informative priors, and general population adjustment methods, as well as a variety of “other” approaches. No studies attempted to compare the performance of alternative methods for incorporating external evidence with respect to the accuracy of survival predictions. Further research investigating this would be valuable

Insulin therapy and dietary adjustments to normalize glycaemia and prevent nocturnal hypoglycaemia after evening exercise in type 1 diabetes: a randomized controlled trial

Introduction Evening-time exercise is a frequent cause of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes, fear of which deters participation in regular exercise. Recommendations for normalizing glycemia around exercise consist of prandial adjustments to bolus insulin therapy and food composition, but this carries only short-lasting protection from hypoglycemia. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the impact of a combined basal-bolus insulin dose reduction and carbohydrate feeding strategy on glycemia and metabolic parameters following evening exercise in type 1 diabetes. Methods Ten male participants (glycated hemoglobin: 52.4±2.2 mmol/mol), treated with multiple daily injections, completed two randomized study-days, whereby administration of total daily basal insulin dose was unchanged (100%), or reduced by 20% (80%). Participants attended the laboratory at ∼08:00 h for a fasted blood sample, before returning in the evening. On arrival (∼17:00 h), participants consumed a carbohydrate meal and administered a 75% reduced rapid-acting insulin dose and 60 min later performed 45 min of treadmill running. At 60 min postexercise, participants consumed a low glycemic index (LGI) meal and administered a 50% reduced rapid-acting insulin dose, before returning home. At ∼23:00 h, participants consumed a LGI bedtime snack and returned to the laboratory the following morning (∼08:00 h) for a fasted blood sample. Venous blood samples were analyzed for glucose, glucoregulatory hormones, non-esterified fatty acids, β-hydroxybutyrate, interleukin 6, and tumor necrosis factor α. Interstitial glucose was monitored for 24 h pre-exercise and postexercise. Results Glycemia was similar until 6 h postexercise, with no hypoglycemic episodes. Beyond 6 h glucose levels fell during 100%, and nine participants experienced nocturnal hypoglycemia. Conversely, all participants during 80% were protected from nocturnal hypoglycemia, and remained protected for 24 h postexercise. All metabolic parameters were similar. Conclusions Reducing basal insulin dose with reduced prandial bolus insulin and LGI carbohydrate feeding provides protection from hypoglycemia during and for 24 h following evening exercise. This strategy is not associated with hyperglycemia, or adverse metabolic disturbances